My analysis on international context on January, the 30th, 2022
Par Benjamin LISAN, le 30/01/2022
Hello, here is the original French text of the letter I sent to my American friend from Colorado:
Dear Michael,
Internationally, I am a pessimist (it is said that a pessimist is an optimist who has experience):
1) we see the decline of democracies everywhere (in the USA, in Eastern Europe, in China, in Russia, in Africa...).
2) there is a strong rise in conspiracy everywhere in the world (linked to a decline in science, to the rise of anti-democratic thoughts especially coming from the extreme right)
(For example, there is a poll in France showing that anti-Semitism is still very present in France, corresponding to the 30% of voters who can
potentially vote for the far right. It's awful for me).
3) There are rumblings in Ukraine with Putin (and it's very worrying) and with Xi Jinping and Taiwan.
I think Putin, like a dangerous sorcerer's apprentice, could start a war (which would be something terrible and catastrophic for the whole world, an apocalypse).
If he's launching this war, it's not to distract from what's happening because of global warming (your guess),
I don't think "global warming" is his top priority. What matters to him is the power of Russia and the extension of its sphere of influence (of its empire).
But I think it is above all out of megalomania, out of hyper-nationalism, out of a desire to return to imperialism and the most pure and hard Russian supremacism and to stay in power.
It is because of an obsessive thought of revenge of Russia (USSR) on the West (following the humiliating fall of the USSR against the USA, the West, in 90-91).
Nobody understands that he has long cherished the project of restoring the USSR and its power, by any means, even illegal ones (remember, for example, that Putin declared that the "disintegration of the USSR [ was] the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”).
In addition, he is a soldier who cherishes his army (red) whose power he has wanted to restore since 2002 and he devotes a colossal budget to it, as at the time of the USSR.
He has also been trying for years to weaken the West (including in Africa and all over the world), by sowing chaos there, by disseminating, in high doses, fake news intended, to denigrate, to arouse everywhere hatred of the West or distrust of it, by interference in Russian elections, by financing far-right parties all over the world, in order to have a favorable balance of power in order to recreate the USSR .
For me, there are signs that he wants war:
1) At the beginning of January, Russia moved large stocks of blood bags near Ukraine [7],
2) The Russian authorities published rules for the arrangement of mass graves (end of December [1]),
3) The hysterization of the debate concerning Ukraine and NATO, on the Russian media, all controlled by the Kremlin,
With total misinformation about aid to the USSR, in 1992, [6] and the current role of NATO.
Already, Putin, from 09/12/2021, was in the deadly one-upmanship, speaking, for example, "A first step towards genocide" in Ukraine [11].
Otherwise, here are some samples of what Russian viewers heard on the evening of January 16: During Vladimir Soloviev's broadcast, we first see a torrent of hatred against Ukraine surge, quickly transformed into a call for murder: "Ukraine will be liquidated. Variation: “The Ukraine will be liquidated by the Americans. Then comes the turn of the other “Russophobes”: in the front line Great Britain. Dmitry Evstafiev, professor at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, fumes: “We must compel the United States to force the United Kingdom to denuclearize! Because he sucks!!! Britain is a monkey with a grenade!!! And of course the Baltic States: “You can't even call them [Baltic countries] countries. Europe attracts the worst imprecations, all in the filthy language of the underworld that now characterizes Russian diplomats and “experts”: “If we want to, we will fuck behind the European Union. » [10].
4) Cyberattacks against Ukraine, including that of 01/14/2022 [3],
5) the banning of the NGO Memorial, known worldwide, the last Russian NGO where democracy and freedom were blowing (and the sign that Putin sends is very strong).
Thus, it will be impossible to dispute the revised official history of Putin (on the gulags, the massacres of communism, the "great patriotic war").
However, this NGO provided the historical truth on these last three subjects and maintained the memory of these dramatic facts [4].
Putin's regime now goes so far as to deny the "mass graves of Stalin's gulags" [5].
Even the demonstrations, in the streets of the big Russian cities, of solitary demonstrators carrying a sign of protest, are prohibited there.
6) Let us add that for a long time, Putin has not respected any international agreement _ Minsk I and II agreements [8], "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" (Budapest memorandum) of 1994 [9] [9bis] _ as if it were scraps of paper.
7) Putin, for a long time, propagates the myth of the betrayal of NATO which would not have kept its commitment not to enlarge NATO to the East [12].
NATO, the EU, Eastern countries (of Eastern Europe), should demand:
1) the withdrawal of the coalition military forces from the CIS, near the borders of Ukraine and the Eastern countries,
2) their retreat from our borders, of at least 1000 km (in the direction of the East),
3) non-overflight (non-violation) of their airspace, even by mistake,
3) the suppression or the end of cyberattacks and trolls, against these countries, their administrations, their companies, their social networks.
4) the end of its interference in electoral processes and the financing of certain political parties (in general, extremists), in Western countries.
These countries should launch a symbolic legal action against Russia, for non-respect of international agreements, after the international criminal tribunal of the ICC.
Either Europe is being naive, as in Munich in 1938, believing it is buying peace or doing nothing and letting Russia invade Ukraine... _ then remember the Sudetenland crisis, created by the Nazi Germany... _ OR you have to act otherwise (already show your power, with caution, but without creating panic in the face)...
So in conclusion, I am equally concerned about:
a) the loss of democracy in the United States (the consequence is the "free world" will no longer have the American shield in the world to protect it, against totalitarian regimes, militarily powerful _ Russia, China).
b) war with Russia over Ukraine (Putin could start WW3, especially if there are secret deals between China and Russia for a coordinated blitz in Taiwan and Ukraine (there the USA and the free world would be overwhelmed and flabbergasted)).
c) in the world, global warming (a big danger for humanity in the medium term _ 10 or 30 years?) (if there is a war, this urgent subject will be sidelined).
Regarding the possible re-election of Trump in 2024, I am not at all enthusiastic about it (it would be the reign of the big lie, of conspiracy, of nepotism (of the corruption of his relatives and him), of the dramatic weakening of democracy replaced by permanent populism in the USA, with the permanent recourse to emotions instead of reason (with a deadly increase in the political divide which currently divides Americans).
Friendships,
Benjamin
[1] "Les autorités doivent se tenir prêtes à enterrer des milliers de personnes dans des fosses communes" :
Grave in law: state adopts national standard for mass-casualty burial, 19/12/2021,
[2] Stéréotypes, insultes, agressions : "radiographie" d'un antisémitisme toujours stagnant en France, Victor Vasseur, 26 janvier 2022, https://www.franceinter.fr/societe/stereotypes-insultes-agressions-radiographie-d-un-antisemitisme-toujours-stagnant-en-france
a) 30% des personnes interrogés sont d’accord avec l’idée selon laquelle "les Juifs seraient plus riches que la moyenne des Français".
b) "les Juifs ont trop de pouvoir dans le domaine de l’économie et de la finance" trouve de l’écho chez 26% des répondants.
c) 24% des sondés trouvent que "les Juifs ont trop de pouvoir dans les médias".
Des préjugés présents dans l'électorat LFI (extrême-gauche) et RN (extrême-droite).
[3] Ukraine : une cyberattaque massive vise des sites gouvernementaux, 14/01/2022, https://www.francetvinfo.fr/internet/securite-sur-internet/cyberattaques/ukraine-une-cyberattaque-massive-vise-des-sites-gouvernementaux_4916433.html
Les sites de ministères, dont celui des Affaires étrangères et celui des Situations d'urgence, étaient inaccessibles vendredi matin.
[4] https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_(society)
[5] Russie : Un tribunal a ajouté 2 ans à 1 peine de 13 ans de prison pour l'historien Yuri Dmitriev, dans 1 affaire d'abus sexuels qui, selon ses partisans, a été inventée de toutes pièces pour le punir d'avoir découvert des charniers des goulags de Staline :
a) Russian court extends jail term for Gulag historian to 15 years, December 27, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-court-extends-jail-term-gulag-historian-15-years-2021-12-27/
b) https://twitter.com/RebeccaRambar/status/1475582259298115589
[6] Il y a trente ans, au début de 1992, l'OTAN, dans le cadre de l'opération Provide Hope, avait apporté, vie un total de 282 vols de transport, 7 012 tonnes de nourriture et de médicaments à la Russie et la CEI.
Source : https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Op%C3%A9ration_Provide_Hope & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Provide_Hope
[7] Exclusive: Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern, Phil Stewart, January 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/
[8] a) accord de Minsk, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accord_de_Minsk
b) Protocole de Minsk, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocole_de_Minsk & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
c) Minsk II, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II
[9] Mémorandum de Budapest de 1994, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9morandum_de_Budapest
[9bis] Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
[10] Poutine : le flirt avec l’apocalypse, Françoise Thom, 28 janvier 2022, https://desk-russie.eu/2022/01/28/poutine-le-flirt-avec-lapocalypse.html
Après la fin de non-recevoir présentée par les Occidentaux à l’ultimatum russe du 17 décembre, ceux-ci prennent lentement conscience que le risque de guerre avec la Russie est peut-être réel, qu’il s’agit de plus que de l’Ukraine, et que Poutine, cet « extrémiste latent », pour reprendre la formule du politologue Gleb Pavlovski, ne se contente peut-être pas de bluffer. Tous les yeux sont tournés vers Moscou, guettant fiévreusement les indices qui pourraient fournir la clé du comportement russe.
[11] Ukraine : « Un premier pas vers un génocide », selon Vladimir Poutine, 09/12/2021, https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-un-premier-pas-vers-un-genocide-selon-vladimir-poutine-09-12-2021-2456072_24.php
Jeudi, l’homme fort du Kremlin a évoqué la « russophobie » des populations russophones du Donbass, au cœur de tensions entre Moscou et les Occidentaux.
[12] Crise en Ukraine : l'Otan a-t-elle "trahi" la Russie en s'élargissant à l'Est ? Grégoire SAUVAGE, 29/01/2022, https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20220129-crise-en-ukraine-l-otan-a-t-elle-trahi-la-russie-en-s-%C3%A9largissant-%C3%A0-l-est
En 1990, les Américains auraient promis aux Russes de ne pas élargir l’Alliance atlantique à l’Est. Trente plus tard, le Kremlin continue d'entretenir ce mythe de la promesse violée des Occidentaux pour justifier ses menaces sur l’Ukraine. Explications.
L’origine du mythe de la trahison : Pour comprendre le fondement du ressentiment russe, il faut remonter au 9 février 1990 et à un entretien entre le secrétaire d’État américain, James Baker, et le dirigeant soviétique, Mikhaïl Gorbatchev. La discussion porte sur le statut de l’Allemagne réunifiée. Il est alors convenu que l’Otan ne s’étendra pas au territoire de la RDA, une promesse répétée dans un discours du secrétaire général de l’Otan le 17 mai à Bruxelles.
Finalement, un accord sera trouvé en septembre avec la Russie pour permettre aux troupes de l’Otan de stationner au-delà du "Rideau de fer".
"L’URSS existait toujours et les pays d’Europe de l’Est faisaient encore partie des structures soviétiques, notamment du pacte de Varsovie qui ne sera officiellement dissous qu’en juillet 1991", précise Amélie Zima, docteure en science politique rattachée au Centre Thucydide (Panthéon-Assas). "On ne peut pas parler de trahison, car se prépare un enchaînement d’événements difficilement prévisibles qui fera entrer l’Europe dans une nouvelle configuration de sécurité."
En somme, au moment où les Occidentaux offrent les "garanties" dont parle Vladimir Poutine, personne ne peut alors prédire l’effondrement de l’URSS et les bouleversements historiques à venir.
English translation of Bibliography :
[1] "The authorities must be ready to bury thousands of people in mass graves":
Grave in law: state adopts national standard for mass-casualty burial, 19/12/2021,
[2] Stereotypes, insults, attacks: "radiography" of a still stagnant anti-Semitism in France, Victor Vasseur, January 26, 2022, https://www.franceinter.fr/societe/stereotypes-insultes-aggressions-radiographie-d- anti-Semitism-still-stagnant-in-france
a) 30% of people questioned agree with the idea that "Jews are richer than the average French person".
b) "Jews have too much power in economics and finance" is echoed by 26% of respondents.
c) 24% of respondents find that "Jews have too much power in the media".
Prejudices present in the LFI (far left) and RN (far right) electorate.
[3] Ukraine: a massive cyberattack targets government sites, 14/01/2022, https://www.francetvinfo.fr/internet/securite-sur-internet/cyberattaques/ukraine-une-cyberattaque-massive-vise-des-sites-gouvernementaux_4916433.html
The sites of ministries, including that of Foreign Affairs and that of Emergency Situations, were inaccessible Friday morning.
[4] https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_(society)
[5] Russia: A court added 2 years to a 13-year prison sentence for historian Yuri Dmitriev, in a sexual abuse case which his supporters say was fabricated to punish him for having discovered mass graves from Stalin's gulags:
a) Russian court extends jail term for Gulag historian to 15 years, December 27, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-court-extends-jail-term-gulag-historian-15-years-2021-12-27/
b) https://twitter.com/RebeccaRambar/status/1475582259298115589
[6] Thirty years ago, at the beginning of 1992, NATO, within the framework of Operation Provide Hope, brought to life a total of 282 transport flights, 7,012 tons of food and medicine to the Russia and the CIS.
Source: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Op%C3%A9ration_Provide_Hope & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Provide_Hope
[7] Exclusive: Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to US concern, Phil Stewart, January 28, 2022, , https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/
[8] a) Minsk agreement, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Agreement
b) Minsk Protocol, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocole_de_Minsk & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
c) Minsk II, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II
[9] Budapest Memorandum of 1994, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9morandum_de_Budapest
[9bis] Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
[10] Poutine: flirting with the apocalypse, Françoise Thom, January 28, 2022, https://desk-russie.eu/2022/01/28/poutine-le-flirt-avec-lapocalypse.html
After Westerners rejected the Russian ultimatum of December 17, they are slowly becoming aware that the risk of war with Russia is perhaps real, that it is more than Ukraine, and that Putin, this "latent extremist", to use the expression of political scientist Gleb Pavlovski, may not be satisfied with just bluffing. All eyes are on Moscow, feverishly watching for clues that might provide the key to Russian behavior.
[11] Ukraine: “A first step towards genocide”, according to Vladimir Poutine, 09/12/2021, https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-un-premier-pas-vers-un-genocide-selon-vladimir-poutine-09-12-2021-2456072_24.php
Thursday, the strongman of the Kremlin spoke of the "Russophobia" of the Russian-speaking populations of Donbass, at the heart of tensions between Moscow and the West.
[12] Crisis in Ukraine: Has NATO "betrayed" Russia by expanding to the East? Grégoire SAUVAGE, 01/29/2022, https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20220129-crise-en-ukraine-l-otan-a-t-elle-trahi-la-russie-en-s-%C3%A9largissant-%C3%A0-l-est
In 1990, the Americans would have promised the Russians not to expand the Atlantic Alliance to the East. Thirty years later, the Kremlin continues to maintain this myth of the West's broken promise to justify its threats to Ukraine. Explanations.
The Origin of the Myth of Betrayal: To understand the basis of Russian resentment, one must go back to February 9, 1990, and a meeting between US Secretary of State James Baker and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. The discussion focuses on the status of a reunited Germany. It is then agreed that NATO will not extend to the territory of the GDR, a promise repeated in a speech by the Secretary General of NATO on May 17 in Brussels.
Finally, an agreement will be reached in September with Russia to allow NATO troops to station beyond the "Iron Curtain".
"The USSR still existed and the countries of Eastern Europe were still part of the Soviet structures, in particular the Warsaw Pact which was not officially dissolved until July 1991", specifies Amélie Zima, doctor in political science attached to the Thucydide Center (Panthéon-Assas). "We cannot speak of treason, because a chain of events, which are difficult to predict, is preparing which will bring Europe into a new security configuration."
In short, at a time when Westerners are offering the "guarantees" of which Vladimir Putin speaks, no one can then predict the collapse of the USSR and the historical upheavals to come.
Table des matières
1 the decline of democracies, in the world
2 the conspiration theories contamination, un the world
3 The thread of Ukraine invasion by Putin